Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in coupled general circulation models     

Matthieu Lengaigne  Gabriel A. Vecchi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(2-3):299-313

As in the observed record, the termination of El Niño in the coupled IPCC-AR4 climate models involves meridional processes tied to the seasonal cycle. These meridional processes both precondition the termination of El Niño events in general and lead to a peculiar termination of extreme El Niño events (such as those of 1982–83 and 1997–98), in which the eastern equatorial Pacific warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) persist well into boreal spring/early-summer. The mechanisms controlling the peculiar termination of extreme El Niño events, which involves to the development of an equatorially centred intertropical convergence zone, are consistent across the four models that exhibit extreme El Niños and observational record, suggesting that this peculiar termination represents a general feature of extreme El Niños. Further, due to their unusual termination, extreme El Niños exhibit an apparent eastward propagation of their SSTA, which can strongly influence estimates of the apparent propagation of ENSO over multi-decadal periods. Interpreting these propagation changes as evidence of changes in the underlying dynamical feedbacks behind El Niño could therefore be misleading, given the strong influence of a single extreme event.  相似文献   

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Christophe E. Menkes  Matthieu Lengaigne  Patrick Marchesiello  Nicolas C. Jourdain  Emmanuel M. Vincent  Jér?me Lefèvre  Fabrice Chauvin  Jean-Francois Royer 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):301-321

This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979–2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.  相似文献   

Nanoscale origin of the thermo-mechanical behavior of clays     

Laurent Brochard  Túlio Honório  Matthieu Vandamme  Michel Bornert  Michael Peigney 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(6):1261-1279

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Preservation of cross-strata due to the migration of subaqueous dunes: an experimental investigation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Suzanne F. Leclair 《Sedimentology》2002,49(6):1157-1180

This experimental investigation examined the controls on the geometry of cross‐sets formed by subaqueous dunes. A range of steady, unidirectional flow conditions spanning the field of dune existence was investigated, and aggradation rate ranged from 0 mm s^?1 to 0·014 mm s^?1. Data from an ultrasonic depth profiler consist of high‐resolution temporal and spatial series of bed profiles from which dune height and length, migration rate and the depth of trough scour were measured. Cross‐set thickness and length were measured from sediment peels. The size and shape of dunes from an equilibrium assemblage change continuously. Individual dunes commonly increase in height by trough scouring and, occasionally, by being caught‐up by the upstream dune. Both types of behaviour occur suddenly and irregularly in time and, hence, do not appear to depend on dunes further upstream. However, dune climbing or flattening is a typical response of dunes that disappear under the influence of the upstream dune. All types of behaviour occur at any flow velocity or aggradation rate. Successive dune‐trough trajectories, defined by dunes showing various behaviours, affect the geometry of the preserved cross‐sets. Mean cross‐set thickness/mean dune height averages 0·33 (±0·7), and mean cross‐set length/mean dune length averages 0·49 (±0·08), and both show no systematic variation with aggradation rate or flow velocity. Mean cross‐set thickness/mean cross‐set length tends to decrease with increasing flow velocity and Froude number, therefore allowing a qualitative estimation of flow conditions. Quantitative analysis of the temporal changes in the geometry and migration rate of individual dunes allows the development of a two‐dimensional stochastic model of dune migration and formation of cross‐sets. Computer realizations produced stacks of cross‐sets of comparable shape and thickness to laboratory flume observations, indicating a good empirical understanding of the variability of dune‐trough trajectories. However, interactions among dunes and aggradation rates of the order of 10^?2 mm s^?1 should be considered in future improved models.  相似文献   

Thermal radiative fluxes through inhomogeneous cloud fields: a sensitivity study using a new stochastic cloud generator     

Albert Benassi  Frdric Szczap  Anthony Davis  Matthieu Masbou  Cline Cornet  Pascal Bleuyard 《Atmospheric Research》2004,72(1-4):291

We analyze the effects of flat and bumpy top, fractional and internally inhomogeneous cloud layers on large area-averaged thermal radiative fluxes. Inhomogeneous clouds are generated by a new stochastic model: the tree-driven mass accumulation process (tdMAP). This model is able to provide stratocumulus and cumulus cloud fields with properties close to those observed in real clouds. A sensitivity study of cloud parameters is done by analyzing differences between 3D fluxes simulated by the spherical harmonic discrete ordinate method and three “standard” models likely to be used in general circulation models: plane-parallel homogeneous cloud model (PPH), PPH with fractional cloud coverage model (FCPPH) and independent pixel approximation model (IPA). We show that thermal fluxes are strong functions of fractional cloud coverage, mean optical depth, mean geometrical thickness and cloud base altitude. Fluctuations of “in-cloud” horizontal variability in optical depth and cloud-top bumps have negligible effects in the whole. We also showed that PPH, FCPPH and IPA models are not suitable to compute thermal fluxes of flat top fractional inhomogeneous cloud layer, except for completely overcast cloud. This implies that horizontal transport of photon at thermal wavelengths is important when cloudy cells are separated by optically thin regions.  相似文献   

Modelling the Mixing Function to Constrain Coseismic Hydrochemical Effects: An Example from the French Pyrénées     

Jean-Paul Toutain  Margot Munoz  Jean-Louis Pinaud  Stéphanie Levet  Matthieu Sylvander  Alexis Rigo  Jocelyne Escalier 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(4):723-744

Groundwater coseismic transient anomalies are evidenced and characterized by modelling the mixing function F characteristic of the groundwater dynamics in the Ogeu (western French Pyrénées) seismic context. Investigations of water-rock interactions at Ogeu indicate that these mineral waters from sedimentary environments result from the mixing of deep waters with evaporitic signature with surficial karstic waters. A 3-year hydrochemical monitoring of Ogeu springwater evidences that using arbitrary thresholds constituted by the mean ± 1 or 2σ, as often performed in such studies, is not a suitable approach to characterize transient anomalies. Instead, we have used a mixing function F calculated with chemical elements, which display a conservative behavior not controlled by the precipitation of a mineral phase. F is processed with seismic energy release (E_s) and effective rainfalls (R). Linear impulse responses of F to E_s and R have been calculated. Rapid responses (10 days) to rainwater inputs are evidenced, consisting in the recharge of the shallow karstic reservoir by fresh water. Complex impulse response of F to microseismic activity is also evidenced. It consists in a 2-phase hydrologic signal, with an inflow of saline water in the shallow reservoir with a response delay of 10 days, followed by an inflow of karstic water with a response delay of 70 days, the amount being higher than the saline inflow. Such a process probably results from changes in volumetric strain with subsequent microfracturation transient episodes allowing short inflow of deep salted water in the aquifer. This study demonstrates that groundwater systems in such environments are unstable systems that are highly sensitive to both rainfall inputs and microseismic activity. Impulse responses calculation of F to E_s is shown to be a powerful tool to identify transient anomalies. Similar processing is suggested to be potentially efficient to detect precursors of earthquakes when long time-series (5 years at least) are available in areas with high seismicity.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of the history of the Palliser Rockslide based on 36Cl terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating and debris volume estimations     

Matthieu Sturzenegger  Doug Stead  John Gosse  Brent Ward  Corey Froese 《Landslides》2015,12(6):1097-1106

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Analysis of the seismicity in the central part of the Pyrenees (France), and tectonic implications     

Alexis?RigoEmail author  Annie?Souriau  Noalwenn?Dubos  Matthieu?Sylvander  Christian?Ponsolles 《Journal of Seismology》2005,9(2):211-222

Two temporary seismological networks have been set up in 2000 and 2002 in the central part of the Pyrenees, in a region, which appears as a transition between two domains where both the seismic activity and the tectonic regime are different. Together with the permanent networks, they allowed us to obtain precise hypocenter locations for more than 400 events with local magnitudes ranging from 1.5 to 4.6, as well as 30 new focal mechanisms. The seismicity is distributed in several clusters, which are not located along the North Pyrenean Fault, considered as the major tectonic accident resulting from the suture of the Iberian and Eurasian convergent plates when the range formed. Several small fault segments dipping to the north are identified. The maximum focal depth varies from 10 to 20 km, with variations which are roughly parallel to those of the Moho, indicating a thickening of the seismogenic layer to the east of the studied area. The obtained focal solutions reveal a predominance of normal faulting to the West and reverse faulting to the East, with strike-slip motions in between. The largest fault segment to the East, with a length of about 20 km, could possibly be related to a large historical event which occurred in 1660, with intensity IX, close to cities which have become since then important touristic centres.  相似文献   

Quantifying initial and wind forcing uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guotu Li  Mohamed Iskandarani  Matthieu Le Hénaff  Justin Winokur  Olivier P. Le Maître  Omar M. Knio 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(5):1133-1153

This study aims at analyzing the combined impact of uncertainties in initial conditions and wind forcing fields in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) using polynomial chaos (PC) expansions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are used to formulate both spatial perturbations to initial conditions and space-time wind forcing perturbations, namely in the form of a superposition of modal components with uniformly distributed random amplitudes. The forward deterministic HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to propagate input uncertainties in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in spring 2010, during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and to generate the ensemble of model realizations based on which PC surrogate models are constructed for both localized and field quantities of interest (QoIs), focusing specifically on sea surface height (SSH) and mixed layer depth (MLD). These PC surrogate models are constructed using basis pursuit denoising methodology, and their performance is assessed through various statistical measures. A global sensitivity analysis is then performed to quantify the impact of individual modes as well as their interactions. It shows that the local SSH at the edge of the GoM main current—the Loop Current—is mostly sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions affecting the current front, whereas the local MLD in the area of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is more sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. At the basin scale, the SSH in the deep GoM is mostly sensitive to initial condition perturbations, while over the shelf it is sensitive to wind forcing perturbations. On the other hand, the basin MLD is almost exclusively sensitive to wind perturbations. For both quantities, the two sources of uncertainty have limited interactions. Finally, the computations indicate that whereas local quantities can exhibit complex behavior that necessitates a large number of realizations, the modal analysis of field sensitivities can be suitably achieved with a moderate size ensemble.  相似文献   

Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra method—application to a 3D coastal model of the Bay of Biscay     

Matthieu Le Hénaff  Pierre De Mey  Patrick Marsaleix 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(1):3-20

The development of coastal ocean modeling in the recent years has allowed an improved representation of the associated complex physics. Such models have become more realistic, to the point that they can now be used to design observation networks in coastal areas, with the idea that a “good” network is a network that controls model state error. To test this ability without performing data assimilation, we set up a technique called Representer Matrix Spectra (RMS) technique that combines the model state and observation error covariance matrices into a single scaled representer matrix. Examination of the spectrum and the eigenvectors of that matrix informs us on which model state error modes a network can detect and constrain amidst the observation error background. We applied our technique to a 3D coastal model in the Bay of Biscay, with a focus on mesoscale activity, and tested the performance of various altimetry networks and an in situ array deployment strategy. It appears that a single nadir altimeter is not efficient enough at capturing coastal mesoscale physics, while a wide swath altimeter would do a much better job. Testing various local in situ array configurations confirms that adding a current meter to a vertical temperature measurement array improves the detection of secondary variability modes, while shifting the array higher on the shelf break would obviously enhance the model constraint along the coast. The RMS technique is easily set up and used as a “black box,” but the utility of its results is maximized by previous knowledge of model state error physics. The technique provides both quantitative (eigenvalues) and qualitative (eigenvectors) tools to study and compare various network options. The qualitative approach is essential to discard possibly inconsistent modes.  相似文献